Source: ThinkAfricaPress
After heavily disputed elections at the
Nigeria Governors' Forum in May, divisions are growing within President
Jonathan's party.
On Friday 24 May, governors from 35 of Nigeria's 36 states met in
Abuja to elect the new chairman of the Nigeria Governors' Forum (NGF).
Incumbent chairman and governor of oil-rich Rivers State, Rotimi
Amaechi, defeated the president's preferred candidate, Jonah Jang, by 19
votes to 16.
The result has left the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) in
disarray: Amaechi has subsequently been suspended by the party, some
have belatedly declared Jang the rightful winner. Both men presently
claim to be chairman of the forum.
Hudu Abdullahi, a senior lecturer in political science at Ahmadu
Bello University, told Think Africa Press: "The political situation that
is following the NGF elections is rooted in the ambition of Jonathan to
stand again in 2015."
With PDP fractures visibly deepening, many have argued that this is
the clearest sign yet that Goodluck Jonathan's ability to unite the
party is fading. With the 2015 election looming ever closer, is Jonathan
losing his grip on power?
Preventing Democratic Pressures
Ever since its establishment in 1999, the National Governors' Forum
has been a PDP stronghold. It has been chaired by five different men,
all from the ruling PDP: Abdullahi Adamu of Nasarawa Sate (1999-2004),
Victor Attah, the former governor of Akwa Ibom State(2004-2006), Lucky
Igbinedion of Edo State (2006-2007), Bukola Saraki of Kwara state
(2007-2011) and most recently Amaechi from 2011-2013.
Although it is not formally enshrined in the Constitution, the forum
has played an influential role in Nigerian politics - most recently in
the removal and partial reinstatement of the fuel subsidy in January
2012. And the author Michael Nnebe last week warned against
underestimating the NGF:
"To think that the NGF is not powerful would be a costly mistake. As
powerful as Obasanjo appeared to be while in office, he had to get the
approval of governors forum before he could successfully present
Yar'Adua's name at the PDP primaries in 2007."
However, under the stewardship of Amaechi things have changed. A move
towards a more independent stance has not been well received. The
presidency and pro-government political observers have accused the NGF
of strong-arming the political centre on various national issues and
transforming itself in a pressure group, whose authority rivals the
executive.
The chosen one
The president and PDP accordingly had vested interests in the outcome
of the May 24 elections. Selecting the preferred candidate was
initially a two-horse race between Katsina state's governor Ibrahim
Shema and Isa Yuguda of Bauchi state. However, with both men seemingly
unwilling to make way for the other, a third candidate - Plateau state's
Jonah Jang - became the consensus choice.
Amaechi was approached to tow the party line and asked to withdraw
his candidacy. He refused, and defeated Jang in what from video footage
appeared to be a free and fair election.
But in the immediate aftermath, disgruntled governors held a press
conference to declare Jang - contrary to secret ballot voting - the
rightful winner. A letter of endorsement, which featured the signatures
of 19 pro-presidential governors, was held up as evidence that Jang had
won.
Reinforcing divisions
The incident has caused a de facto split in the NGF, one that has played into the hands of the opposition parties.
On May 25, Jang promised to "unite members of the forum and work for
the interest of the forum and country". On the same day, Amaechi
outlined similar commitments at the NGF headquarters:
"That is the mandate that was freely given and I will stick to that
mandate. I think that it is up to Nigerians to know that nothing pays
more than democracy."
Rival parties have been quick and unrelenting in their condemnation.
Lai Mohammed, publicity secretary for the Action Congress of Nigeria
(ACN) described the presidency's recognition of Jang as the NGF chairman
as a "travesty of democracy", while the Congress for Progressive Change
(CPC) branded the president's actions "shameful".
Northern sole
The NGF's divisions have manifested themselves in a variety of different fora.
Last Thursday, the NGF's parallel northern institution, the Northern
Governors' Forum, met in Kaduna. Only 5 of a potential 19 northern
governors were present - with widespread absences believed a show of
solidarity with the president's stance.
Hours before the NGF elections, they had decided to bloc vote for
Jang as chairman. However, results showed that a number of Northern
governors had likely reneged on the agreement. Chairman of the Northern
Governors' Forum Babangida Aliyu is suspected of voting for Amaechi, and
rumours he will be removed from his post are gaining momentum.
The situation is a difficult one for Jonathan though, he must be
careful not to appear too autocratic and alienate his northern allies.
On June 5, the Sokoto State Governor Aliyu Wamakko was suspended by the
PDP for alleged insubordination - a move criticised by pro-democracy
groups.
Toppling Jonathan
Hudu Abdullahi told Think Africa Press, "if the PDP were to split or
splinter because of the governors' forum fallout, Nigeria could witness
an increased level of political violence, which is not good for a
country that is already fragile."
It may be far too early to speak of an official split within the PDP,
but there is enough to suggest that, even at the highest levels,
Goodluck Jonathan's has a lot of work to do to unite the party.
Former president Olusegun Obasanjo, past military head of state
Ibrahim Babangida and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar each
represent factions of a powerful, elite political class that are trying
to maintain a degree of dominance within the party.
Last week's Democracy Day celebrations, hosted by Jonathan, were
revealing. While three former heads of state were present - Shehu
Shagari , Ernest Shonekon and Yakubu Gowan - Obasanjo, Muhammadu Buhari,
Ibrahim Babangida and Abdulsalami Abubakar were all conspicuously
absent.
Obasanjo, who played an instrumental role in Jonathan's rise to
presidency instead chose to attend the first Jigawa state Investment
forum - hosted by the man some feel is his preferred candidate for the
2015 elections, Sule Lamido. At the forum, Obasanjo stressed, "you can
help someone to get a job but you cannot help that person do the job".
This was seen as a thinly-veiled broadside against the incumbent
president.
It may be tempting for Jonathan to dismiss these political
heavyweights as yesterday's men, but he should do so at his own peril.
The influence of these former rulers still counts for a lot in a country
where a large section of elites were single-handedly created by or
under Babangida and Obasanjo.
In the run-up to the 2015 elections, two main interest groups are
slowly forming: President Jonathan and the majority of the PDP
leadership on one side, former presidents, some Northern governors and a
minority within his own party - like Ameachi - on the other side.
If these two groups are not united, 2015 may become a year to forget for the ruling PDP.
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